CQ Roll Call June 19, 2013 | Register

The Next U.S. Recession is Now

John Hussman argues that the “the U.S. economy is presently entering a recession. Not next year; not later this year; but now.”

“In effect, we’re going into another recession because we never effectively addressed the problems that produced the first one, leaving us unusually vulnerable to aftershocks… When the bubble crashed, our policy makers made their crucial mistake – first through the Bush Administration, and then continued by the Obama Administration – they failed to require bondholders to take losses on bad loans… To restore the economy to the path of long-term growth, we need to allocate capital better. This requires the willingness to allow bad investments to work out badly, without being bailed out or otherwise rescued… Of course, stimulus programs can have important short-term effects, but even here, we can’t talk meaningfully about “stimulating aggregate demand” unless we also restructure the debt burdens on individuals, primarily on the mortgage side.”

  • d v

    So he’s saying the financial system should have collapsed? Forgive me for not taking him all that seriously then

    • Chredon

      No, he goes farther than that. He’s saying that we haven’t addresses the fundamental problems in the financial system yet.

      “Specifically, over the past 15 years, the global financial system – encouraged by misguided policy and short-sighted monetary interventions – has lost its function of directing scarce capital toward projects that enhance the world’s standard of living. Instead, the financial system has been transformed into a self-serving, grotesque casino that misallocates scarce savings, begs for and encourages speculative bubbles, refuses to restructure bad debt, and demands that the most reckless stewards of capital should be rewarded through bailouts that transfer bad debt from private balance sheets to the public balance sheet.”

      So he’s saying the global financial system no longer serves its function of support businesses and individuals in making sound investments. it’s goal today is to make financial institution officers into overnight multimillionaires by letting them create bubbles, ride them to financial success, then dump their losses on the taxpayer.

      And he’s right.

  • LeftThePubsDuetaPalin

    Nice linkbait, Taegan.  Taking lessons from HuffPo?

  • Pingback: The European Crisis Should Miss the U.S. | Taegan Goddard's Wonk Wire

  • Chredon

    Another reason we have bubbles is that wealthy people have too much money.

    Really. People who have a lot of money will want to invest it in something. But there are only so many worthy investments to go around. So people end up investing in things that have little growth potential, but sound good on paper. So investors flock to these things hoping to make a quick buck and for a while it works. Then people realize that the Emperor has no clothes, the bubble bursts, and whoever didn’t get out in time loses big.

    Investors who realize this will, instead of investing in risky things, just park their money in the Cayman Islands and wait for the market to improve. But money sitting in an off-shore account isn’t helping the economy any more than a player sitting on the bench is helping the team. 

    Finally, the primary vehicle for investment today isn’t new companies or small businesses or innovation. It’s just investors trading stocks. Trading stocks does nothing to improve the economy. It used to be that a stock’s value was at least loosely coupled to the economic output of the company or its potential to grow. But nobody in today’s market (except Warren Buffet) wants to get rich slow. They want it now, and so the incentive to create a bubble, even where no true value exists, is very strong.

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