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Re-electing Obama is a Recipe for Endless Gridlock

Posted at 11:15 a.m. on Sept. 4, 2012

Ramesh Ponnuru: “If Obama wins re-election, the Republican Party will react by moving right, not left. It will become less likely to compromise with Obama, not more… Republicans, especially at the grassroots level, would react to Obama’s re-election by assuming that Romney failed because he was too moderate. That’s a very widespread view among Republicans about why Senator John McCain lost in 2008… This interpretation of 2008 is probably wrong, and it will probably be the wrong explanation for a Romney defeat, if it happens. It will nonetheless be an appealing theory for conservatives.”

“The Republicans aren’t going to change. Judging from the interview, neither will the president… If the public renders a split verdict — returning Obama to the presidency and giving Republicans more power in Congress — both parties will insist that it’s the other that needs to ‘listen to the American people.’ The choice before those people is looking more and more like one between Romney and a unified Republican government, or Obama and four more years that look a lot like the last two.”

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  • Transplanted ‘Nuck

    Almost reads like an endorsement of “hey, I’d rather see a bunch of terrible stuff actually get done, than nothing at all happen”.

    I couldn’t disagree more.

  • http://twitter.com/BobFishell Bob Fishell

    I think we will see this scenario: President Obama will be reelected. The Senate will stay in Democratic hands, although the Republicans might pick up one or two seats. The Republicans will retain control of the House, albeit with a smaller majority (If they actually GAIN seats, I won’t know what to make of it, and you can stop reading now. If Dems retake the House, it’s a new ball game).

    This will be a dilemma for Boehner. He will have nothing to gain by continuing to appease the Tea Party conservatives in his caucus. The surviving Chamber of Commerce Republicans may decide that they have nothing to gain by continuing to side with them, in which case, you’ll see a civil war within the House Republican caucus, ending in a leadership shakeup.

    I guess we will know when the lame duck session undertakes the fiscal cliff issue. If the Republicans continue to take hostages, we may be in for a dismal second term. If we see some movement to the center, things will get better.

    • embo66

      I suspect you are spot on, Bob — that’s how the election will shake out. The subtle changes in congressional numbers you predict won’t much affect the larger power relationships, though — and so it seems unlikely to me that either side will feel much chastened.

      My only hope is that, as gridlock continues eternal, both houses will begin to feel pressure to revise the way they operate. Maybe the Senate would finally restore a true filibuster and stop secret holds; that would help expose the plainly — and merely — obstructionist. The House’s woes are a tougher nut to crack. But if Boehner’s smart, he’ll use internecine warfare as an excuse to act like a real leader for a change — and strike deals with the White House.

    • roml2112

      If the republicans keep control (probable, but unfortunate) John Boehner will very much have something to gain appeasing the tea partiers. He will get to stay speaker.

      • http://twitter.com/BobFishell Bob Fishell

        Bonehead is the second worst Speaker (behind Hastert) in 100 years. He might not keep his job in any case. Cantor is hunnngggry.

    • tabster

      If the Republicans hold the House and do not move to the center, then the Democrats will likely trounce them in 2014.

  • http://riffle.blogspot.com riffle

    Republicans will keep going right for some years whether they win or lose. Even Mitt Romney would surprise with how much of a wingnut he is, should he win. If he loses, the GOP will blame his “centrism” for the loss.

    The only thing that stands between full-blown tea party craziness running the country is electing Democrats where and whenever possible.

  • Andrew Mossberg

    It’s doesn’t seem believable that the GOP would take yet another step to the right further from the mainstream. It’s more likely in my mind that the party will split into nutjobs and normals, with the normals tacking back towards center.

    • omrala

      It may be increasingly likely that this’ll take the shape of an unpleasant balance on the part of the old-school Republicans: continue in an increasingly downward-spiral alliance with the tea party (particularly as, every year that goes by, the nation’s demographics move farther away from that group’s core), or strike out on their own and immediately be a much smaller minority – albeit one with actual realistic hopes of drawing independent and blue-dog supporters to its banner.

      After the 2010 (limited) victories, I don’t expect any split to happen until another election or two are lost, though, at the earliest…

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  • Tom_P

    So the choice is “Give the Republicans total power or they’ll make you miserable, probably.” Why not suspend the farce of elections and demand permanent installation of a Republican majority?

  • General_Stuck

    The other side of good cop, let’s us know the terms of republican ransom for not destroying America. Vote for us to run things, and the hostage will be released, maybe.

  • MG

    I disagree. I think Obama reelection is the last best chance for moderates to return from hiding heads in the sand, grow some cajones and start fighting the radicals for control of their party. For the simple reason that an Obama win will demonstrate that pandering to radicals will NOT result in general election victories, and that being obstructionist and not compromising and working together will not improve publics opinion of congress or the republican party. What this theory does not take into account is that the public despises and blames congress far more than the president for what has gone wrong. Millions of us want moderates and compromisers rather than radicals from either side. Obama is a moderate. We need moderates to return to congress with some fire to get things done rather than living in fear of a radical and unpopular ‘tea party.’ an ass whooping by Obama in a big general election will do wonders for making that happen.

    • barryclinton

      Except: Obama is not a moderate. He is far left on social issues and fiscal issues. Foreign policy is a bit more complicated, and not as easy to catergorize.

      • barryclinton

        categorize

        • Transplanted ‘Nuck

          Yeah, that’s the correction you needed to make. Nothing else was off the mark, at all…

          Cough.

      • ThatPeterG

        You mean “far left,” as in not requiring women to carry a rapist’s baby?

        • barryclinton

          Just go ahead and cut the baby to death? The Romney ticket is for the compromise postion of allowing abortion in that case. I personally still think it’s unbelievably cruel to the baby.

      • MBouffant

        “Far left.” Are you kidding?

      • MG

        “not a moderate” cuz he’s ‘far left on social issues and fiscal issues.’ i would suggest this comment is illustrative of how the right prefers a stereotype, to demonize, than to discuss the ACTUAL facts with us. your comment barryclinton is wholly NOT backed up by his record. he’s ‘far left’ cuz of obamacare, i’m sure you will say, even though the far left wants single payer. it appears you are unaware that one of obama’s biggest political problems is the fact that the ultra left has been mad at him and not as supportive of him BECAUSE he has resisted the ‘far left’ part of their agenda. but don’t let the reality get in your way. he had to ‘evolve’ on gay marriage, which most americans support, and he is waging a vicious war on marijuana, which most americans do not support, and yet, in your fantasy, he’s ‘not a moderate.’ and on fiscal issues? his treasury secretary and entire team are WALL STREETERS. you think Geithner is ‘far left’? then you know little or nothing about the history. what right wingers mean when they say this is: “anything not in agreement with what we think” is “far left.” in fact, i would suggest, your comment hints that most likely you, and people like you, are extremely far right. he IS a moderate, your prattling stereotypes aside. whether you like it or you don’t. back here in reality. when will a republican return to moderation? any republican? barryclinton is obviously not up to the job, that’s for sure.

      • Tom_P

        I’m honestly baffled here. Most of his positions are comparable to those of the Republicans circa 1995. Were those far-left positions when the Republicans held them? Was the PPACA mandate plan a far-left piece of radicalism when the Cato Institute proposed it? I welcome your reply.

        • barryclinton

          It was a mistake. Whether it was just a big mistake, or a huge mistake, I’ll leave for others to decide…

          • Tom_P

            Was it a mistake when Mitt Romney proposed it? Was it a mistake when the Republican Party proposed it in the 1990s? Was it a mistake when the Cato Institute promulgated it? Answer the question. Was it far-left ideology then, or did it only become far-left ideology in 2009?

      • michael renn

        Oh, how I wish he really was!

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Jo-Hargis/100002882420472 Jo Hargis

      I agree with MG. The GOP needs a resounding STOMP this November to force them to reform. And if you look at their overall platform, they’ve alienated just about every voting bloc except crusty white men and a few submissive, dependent women. There are already grumblings from some of the higher positioned GOP folks like Jeb Bush, etc. that the party isn’t going to survive at the rate it’s going, with the coming demographic changes to the nation. It’s the tea party, stupid. Everything about them has brought the GOP to exactly where it is today, them and their radical fringe agenda and attempts to shove religion in everyone’s face and bedroom and vaginas, as well as their stubborn insistence that austerity works when the evidence is overwhelming that it doesn’t.

  • embo66

    Huh? Why does Ponnuru assume Republicans will gain more power in Congress? Doesn’t he read the polls? These repeatedly show that Americans are far more disgusted with Congress — and in particular with its extreme and obstructionist GOP members — than they are with the President.

    But Ponnuru is right about one thing: “The Republicans aren’t going to change.” Their heads are far too far up their own Fox News / conservative media backsides to take note of anything that comes from outside their little parallel universe.

    Which is too bad for the GOP, but (temporarily) good for America. After the GOP implodes — and it will whether they win the White House or no — we can all go back to being adults who work together to solve problems.

  • Arnold Ziffel

    This is why all bush tax cuts should end. Then they will have to compromise with Obama II. The people back home will be screaming bloody murder.

  • cwlidz

    I think this assumes that the minority Democrats would go along with Romney and the Tea Party. Either way, we are going to have Presidential government with a Congress that can do nothing except pass symbolic acts and block appointments.

  • http://twitter.com/deepierson Dee Fogarty Pierson

    The answer to that is to vote out anyone who has shown themselves unwilling to compromise, whatever their party.

    • silverbelle

      “The answer to that is to vote out anyone who has shown themselves unwilling to compromise, whatever their party.”

      Ah, but whose definition of ‘compromise’ will we be using?

  • tabster

    This article is one giant punditry FAIL.

  • http://www.facebook.com/jonathongable Jonathon Gable

    I’m not a terribly huge fan of the hostage metaphor, but I’m finding it hard to avoid after reading the last statement. I’m a lifelong democrat, but I would hesitate to vote if my party ever took the route of “vote for us or we’ll shut it all down”. It’s strange that the Republican voters don’t feel the same way.

    Perhaps more do than we realize?

    • drzaius

      Stockholm Syndrome.

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  • Bullfrog1

    Better that than an unleashed GOP spendapoluza and palm greasing of their favorite contributors through more unfair legislation.

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