Chart of the Day
Posted at 11 a.m. on Nov. 6, 2012
— Cullen Roche is worried about this chart from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, which shows the probability of entering into a recession (in blue).
“What’s interesting about this index is the current reading. At 20%, the index is at a level that has ALWAYS been followed by a recession… the index has never approached 20% without a subsequent recession. All 6 recessions since 1967 have coincided with 20%+ readings in the US Recession Probabilities index… I still don’t see recession in my internal indicators. Those indicators have been right for a long time now (in the face of some very public recession predictions by reputable people). So I am afraid when my internal indicators point to ‘no recession’ when an indicator like this clearly puts that opinion in the ‘this time is different’ category.”