Roll Call: Latest News on Capitol Hill, Congress, Politics and Elections
December 21, 2014

Chart of the Day

recession probs Chart of the Day

Cullen Roche is worried about this chart from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, which shows the probability of entering into a recession (in blue).

“What’s interesting about this index is the current reading.  At 20%, the index is at a level that has ALWAYS been followed by a recession… the index has never approached 20% without a subsequent recession.  All 6 recessions since 1967 have coincided with 20%+ readings in the US Recession Probabilities index… I still don’t see recession in my internal indicators.  Those indicators have been right for a long time now (in the face of some very public recession predictions by reputable people).  So I am afraid when my internal indicators point to ‘no recession’ when an indicator like this clearly puts that opinion in the ‘this time is different’ category.”

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