Chart of the Day
Posted at 8:45 a.m. on Nov. 13, 2012
– Chart showing a general consensus of continued growth among economic forecasters, via Bloomberg Businessweek.
Cullen Roche thinks the consensus is too optimistic: “Since 1945 the average expansion has lasted 56 months or about 4.65 years. If we want to get really narrow, the last 3 expansions have been even longer at 93 months or just shy of 8 years. We’re now in month 38 of our economic expansion which means we’ve reached our maturity date using the long-term averages. We’re still about 18 months outside of a recession using the post-war era data.”
“Obviously, these are averages, but the bottom line is, the odds of going 8 full years (both Obama terms) without another economic contraction are extremely low. That doesn’t mean it can’t happen, but my guess is President Obama’s second term won’t be quite as friendly to him as his first”