Chart of the Day
Posted at 10:15 a.m. on Dec. 3, 2012
— This update to a widely circulated chart by Jeremy Piger showing the probability of a US recession confirms James Hamilton’s optimism about the US economy.
“Piger reports the inference with a 2-month delay to allow for data revisions and trend recognition. For example, the first figure…used data through October 29 to calculate where the economy was as of August. However, that inference is influenced by the data on hand as of October 29, which showed weak employment growth for August and September. As new, more favorable data for August, September, and now October became available, the inference about August became more optimistic.”