We Are Reverting to the Global Trend
Posted at noon on Dec. 4, 2012
Throughout 2012 analysts noted that the sluggish US economy was outpacing the much weaker global economy. But Neil Irwin notes that the US has begun to revert to trend.
“One of the major weights that has hung on U.S. companies over the last few months has been a slowing global economy; American exporters have dealt with less actual demand from overseas, as well as fear that the slump could become an all-out global recession.”
“But the combination of improving manufacturing numbers around the world and weakness in the United States suggests that this is no longer a global story. We have to look inward — particularly to the uncertainty around the resolution of the fiscal cliff — to explain what is happening in the U.S. economy.”
Tim Duy isn’t sure that the data backs this up: “Irwin shifts from the Markit PMIs to the ISM PMI data. What was the Markit PMI for US manufacturing? Up, not down as the ISM reported… Which leads one to wonder which is correct, the ISM or Markit PMI?… Honestly, I don’t know, but it makes me hesitant to compare the Eurozone Markit PMI to the ISM US PMI to argue that the US is deteriorating relative to Europe.”