Pessimism Grows Ahead of November Jobs Report
Posted at 7:45 a.m. on Dec. 7, 2012
Ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ release of the November jobs report later this morning, analysts have been growing increasingly pessimistic. The consensus outlook among economists is an increase of 80,000 non-farm payroll jobs and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 8.0%.
Bill McBride: “Since Hurricane Sandy made landfall on October 29th, the household survey (conducted earlier) might be impacted more by the storm than the establishment survey… the ISM reports suggests about 40,000 jobs added in November. Ouch… The employment related data was pretty weak in November, and I expect the unemployment rate to increase and hiring to be weak; I think less than 80,000 jobs were added in November.”
Neil Irwin says not to read too much into November’s numbers: “The biggest reason is Hurricane Sandy, which struck the Northeast at the tail end of October… Now add in the fact that around the holidays, the seasonal adjustment process looms particularly large and can create distortions… Add in a looming austerity crisis of tax hikes and spending cuts scheduled to take effect Jan. 1.”
