Reports of a Recession Are Greatly Exaggerated
Posted at 2:15 p.m. on Dec. 10, 2012
Tim Duy argues that while some economic analysts continue to insist that the US has entered another recession, none of the “indicators even begin to pass the sniff test for dating a recession beginning in July 2012.”
“Both GDP and GDI gained in the third quarter. I would imagine that the NBER would need to see at least one of these indicators clearly turn downward before the issue of recession would even be worth the slightest consideration.”
“I find it very hard to believe that the NBER would find cause to declare a recession began in July when the economy added jobs for the next four months.”
