What the World Will Look Like in 2030
Posted at noon on Dec. 11, 2012
The National Intelligence Council has released its latest Global Trends report exploring “possible global trajectories over the next 15 years.”
There is also a much-condensed version of the report.
The New York Times has a roundup of the major findings: “The product of four years of intelligence-gathering and analysis, the study, by the National Intelligence Council, presents grounds for optimism and pessimism in nearly equal measure.”
Dan Drezner calls the report a “maturity test for America’s foreign policy community”: “whenever the topic of waning American hegemony comes up in public discourse… well, the conversation doesn’t go well… So pay close attention to who freaks out and who doesn’t from the NIC report, and feel free to discount the future statements of those who choose to freak out today.”
John McCreary “looked backwards to 1994, searching for those analysts who predicted what happened between 1994 and 2012. It is a cautionary tale, still under study, searching for Black Swans… caution is advisable.”