Why There Won't Be a Recession in 2013
Posted at 11 a.m. on Dec. 26, 2012
Concerns of a renewed recession in 2013 are overblown, according to Bill McBride, so long as lawmakers avert the “fiscal cliff.”
“This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy… The key downside risk for the US economy in 2013 is too much austerity, too quickly. However, barring a policy mistake (I expect a fiscal agreement), it seems unlikely there will be a sharp decline in private investment in 2013.”
“This is because residential investment is already near record lows as a percent of GDP and will probably increase further in 2013, and that suggests the US will avoid a new recession in 2013.”
