Don't Believe the Stock Market Pundits
Posted at 10 a.m. on Dec. 28, 2012
David Weidner highlights survey results that call into question the value of expert stock market predictions.
“Of the 65 market ‘gurus’ tracked during the last few years by CXO Advisory Group, the median accuracy for market calls is 47%. If that sounds low, or you wonder about the quality of the pundit, consider that the list includes such well-known names as Bill Fleckenstein (37%), Jeremy Grantham (48%), Bill Gross (46%) and Louis Navellier (60%).”
“The record speaks for itself. Most of the smartest guys in the room are usually about as reliable as a coin flip.”
Cullen Roche: “What we need in the investment business is fewer people with opinions and more people with proven track records that validate their supposedly superior understanding of what’s going to happen and why.”