What We Learned From the GDP Report
Posted at 12:15 p.m. on Jan. 31
The Consumer Metrics Institute pulls out some of the long-term issues with economic data reports highlighted by the weak GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2012.
“BEA is notoriously poor at recording turning points in the economy in ‘real time.’ The first quarter of 2008 was a classic example, initially being reported in ‘real time’ as yet another quarter of sustained growth before being revised downward several times… We fully expect that ultimately the surprising economic upturn seen in the 3Q-2012 data will largely vanish in future revisions.”
“We were frankly astonished when the final numbers for the third quarter came in at a 3.09% ‘full recovery’ growth rate… We should all hope that the context of any such timing shenanigans were more budgetary than political in nature.”