Roll Call: Latest News on Capitol Hill, Congress, Politics and Elections
April 20, 2014

Finally Signs of a Solid Economic Recovery

Tim Duy notes that after three years of “fretting about the fragility of the economy… The economy has proved to be very resilient.”

“Looking back, it seems that the biggest risk the economy faced was the Fed’s start/stop approach to quantitative easing.  That problem appears solved with open-ended QE linked to economic guideposts. At the risk of sounding overly optimistic, I am going to go out on a limb:  The recovery is here to stay.”

“Consider a handful of recent data.  Last year’s slowdown in manufacturing activity has proved temporary… Retail sales continued to gain in February despite the end of the payroll tax break… The housing market is unambiguously improving, which by itself should ease any recession concerns… With the issues of jobs in mind, note that jobless claims continue to grind lower.”

“I am claiming neither that equity prices won’t stumble, nor that we should be happy with the pace of activity.  But I do think that a recession is unlikely before the Federal Reserve begins raising interest rates – something not likely to happen for two years.”

  • Siegfried Heydrich

    Oh, great. NOW you’ve done it. The GOP does NOT want to hear this at all. As soon as they hear this, they’ll redouble their efforts to tank the economy because they think it will improve their electoral chances next year. After all, a recovering economy reflects well on Obama, and they’re certainly not going to sit still for THAT, nosiree bob . . .

  • http://twitter.com/ClintonsRecord Clintons Record

    Solid economy?
    Poverty Level worse than Bush’s year
    Unemployment Rate for 2008 was on average 5.8%.
    Inflation since 2007 is up 10% and income up only 6% so we are earning less today than then.
    GDP despite crazy spending levels and despite pumping from Feds is half the rate of 1992 when it was the economy stupid

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