Roll Call: Latest News on Capitol Hill, Congress, Politics and Elections
March 27, 2015

Same-Sex Marriage Decision Imminent

The Supreme Court announced that it will reconvene tomorrow at 10:00 AM ET to issue the final three cases of the term, including the two same-sex marriage cases, Hollingsworth v. Perry and Windsor v. United States.

PolitiFact looks at the possible rulings:

Option 1: Uphold both Prop 8 and DOMA…. The status quo would stand — no same-sex marriage in California, and no federal recognition of same-sex marriage… Option 2: Punt, citing questions of ‘standing.’ The justices could decide that the backers of Prop 8 (or possibly DOMA) aren’t the right parties to defend the law… Option 3: A mixed decision.”

Option 4: Support same-sex marriage on very limited grounds. For instance, the court could rule that any state that had once allowed same-sex marriage can’t take it away… Option 5: Support same-sex marriage in a more middle-of-the-road fashion. The court could rule that if states have civil unions that are legally identical to marriage, then they cannot deny the label ‘marriage’ to same sex couples… Option 6: Support same-sex marriage everywhere all at once.”

Sean Sullivan has an interactive chart showing how each potential ruling would impact the number of states allowing same-sex marriage/

  • troy williams

    i think they will split the baby like they always do and leave it up to the states that already allowed it that gay marriage stands in the states that voted for it but like abortion make it a states only issue similar to all other marriage laws, but no federal recognition of gay marriage because the equal protection laws don’t apply because men can marry anyone but other men based on natural law,
    also the supremacy clause which states that federal law trumps state laws.
    i personally like the latter and i don’t believe in gay marriage.

    For this outcome 6: roberts, alito, thomas, scalia, kennedy and sotamayor and 3 against: breyer, cantor, and ginsburg, the catholics 6 the jews 3.

    • odypoly

      You’re an idiot.

  • Winston Blake

  • Lorehead

    Recall that Anthony Kennedy wrote the landmark Lawrence decision, and that John Roberts at least is more than savvy enough to know how history would judge him. I don’t see either of them voting for Option 1.

    My guess would be option 3: a narrow ruling in favor of Edith Windsor, throwing out only the parts of DoMA they have to, and punt on Prop 8 on standing, knowing California voters are probably going to repeal it themselves and make the case moot.

    Scalia’s going to embarrass himself in his dissent; by the time of Lawrence, even Thomas was distancing himself from Scalia on the question of gay rights.

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