How Will Obamacare Play Out?
Posted at 12:45 p.m. on Oct. 29
Tyler Cowen predicts that the troubles with the online health insurance exchanges will snowball into a massive continuing problem that will ultimately result in the election of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) as president in 2016.
“More parts of the thing will be working by late November, but not enough for it to serve as a functioning enrollment system… Come January 1, hundreds of thousands of Americans will lose their individual coverage packages for not meeting ACA standards… The exchanges will be mostly working by March 2014, but by then the risk pool will be dysfunctional.”
“By October 2014, no one will think the exchanges are a satisfactory solution, except for 17 state exchanges which will be running reasonably well… Chris Christie will campaign against ACA and beat Hillary Clinton in the general election. Upon assuming office he will place price controls on the insurance plans in the individual market, repeal much but not all of the federal financial support for the Medicaid expansion, and keep many other parts of ACA, while claiming to have repealed the whole thing.”