Roll Call: Latest News on Capitol Hill, Congress, Politics and Elections
March 5, 2015

Predicting Economic Recovery in 2014

Neil Irwin points out a number of recent forecasts showing a pickup in economic growth in 2014, while warning that the “consistent pattern for the last four years has been to project improving growth in the year ahead, and then to mark down those projections when the rosier future does not arrive.”

“Is this an economy that is on track to finally get back to normal, but which keeps hitting pockets of bad luck? Or is there something more fundamentally broken that is the reason forecasters keep proving overly optimistic year after year.”

“The good news for 2014 is that…the forseeable things that dragged down growth the last few years look unlikely to recur. So the good news is that the natural resilience of the world’s leading economies should have a greater ability to assert itself… The counterweight is this: We don’t know what we don’t know.”

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