The Pew Research Center polled Europeans from 10 countries regarding their opinions on U.S. leaders.
The Brooking Institution’s Ben Bernanke, former Chair of the Federal Reserve, gave his take on the global and local economic implications of Brexit.
“Even more obvious now than before the vote is that the biggest losers, economically speaking, will be the British themselves. The vote ushers in what will be several years of tremendous uncertainty… Ironically, the sharp decline in the value of the pound may be a bit of a buffer here as, all else equal, it will make British exports more competitive.”
“The rest of Europe will also be adversely affected, even though Frankfurt and a few other cities may gain finance jobs at the expense of London. The biggest risks here are political, as has been widely noted: In particular, markets are already beginning to price in the risk that other countries or regions will press for greater autonomy from Brussels.”
“In the United States, the economic recovery is unlikely to be derailed by the market turmoil, so long as conditions in financial markets don’t get significantly worse: The strengthening of the dollar and the declines in U.S. equities are relatively moderate so far… However, clearly the Fed and other U.S. policymakers will remain cautious until the effects of the British vote are better sorted out.”
“Although bank stock prices are taking hits, especially in the U.K. and Europe, a financial crisis seems quite unlikely at this point.”
“For more than three decades after World War II, lopsided presidential victories occurred regularly.”
“Election outcomes have narrowed since. Information Age realignment hardened party lines, making Republicans and Democrats more ideologically distinct and reducing the ability of nominees to lure crossover votes.”
“[Donald Trump’s] extraordinary White House bid has raised the question. For Hillary Clinton, now leading solidly in the polls, it looms over strategic choices ranging from selection of a running mate to how she contrasts herself with the presumptive Republican nominee.”
A new Brookings Institution report considers the millennial generation’s role in reshaping America’s demographics.
While race is changing demographics, diversity has already affected the political landscape. This effect is poised to grow stronger in states with “racial generation gaps,” meaning wide gaps between percentages of white Americans ages 55+ and white Americans under 35. White millennials “have embraced positive attitudes toward diversity more openly than their elders,” which could have a profound impact on racial culture.
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have both seen increases in party favorability in recent months, Gallup reports. Keeping true to past trends, both have commanded rising level of support since becoming their party’s presumptive nominee.
Trump has seen a decrease in support among independents in the past month, while Clinton has seen a 3-point bump.
These numbers are still historically low for party nominees at this point in the race: Mitt Romney was viewed favorably by 82 percent of Republicans and President Obama garnered 88 percent favorability among Democrats in 2012.
Notably, though Trump’s favorability among Republicans is well above 50%, most Republicans would have preferred a different candidate, NBC News reports.
New York Times: “The court issued liberal decisions in 56 percent of cases so far this term, according to a widely accepted standard developed by political scientists that considers signed decisions in argued cases. The share is only slightly lower than in the 2014-15 term, which had the highest share of liberal decisions since the court led by Chief Justice Earl Warren in the 1950s and 1960s.”
“Each justice is now voting more with the majority in non-unanimous cases than in the past, with the exception of Justice Clarence Thomas. Justice Kennedy maintained his position as the court’s swing justice, while three of the liberal justices — Justice Elena Kagan, Justice Breyer and Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg — significantly increased their percentages in the majority.”
“Individual justice ideology scores, which are based on voting patterns, also illustrate the court’s leftward shift. With the exception of Justice Thomas, the conservative justice scores moved closer to their liberal counterparts.”
New York Times: “The Supreme Court on Monday struck down parts of a restrictive Texas law that could have reduced the number of abortion clinics in the state to about 10 from what was once a high of roughly 40.”
“The 5-to-3 decision was the court’s most sweeping statement on abortion rights since Planned Parenthood v. Casey in 1992. It applied a skeptical and exacting version of that decision’s ‘undue burden’ standard to find that the restrictions in Texas went too far. The decision on Monday means that similar restrictions in other states are most likely also unconstitutional, and it imperils many other kinds of restrictions on abortion.”
Financial Times: “Below are five of the most statistically significant of these factors. Polling ahead of the referendum had long since identified education as one of the fundamental drivers of voting intention, and the demographic data shows that this was absolutely the case.”
A new Gallup poll identifies the factors that the 53% of Americans that rate Congress’s job performance poor or bad point to when complaining about the institution.
The majority say that Congress is distracted from helping its constituents and instead pays “too much attention to financial contributors” (56%) or “too much attention to special interests and lobbyists” (55%).
Anti-establishment sentiments are clear as well: 43% believe Congress “spends too much time campaigning and raising money,” while 32% believe congressmen “pay too much attention to party leaders.”
Financial Times’s Alex Barker: “It is a moment all EU leaders feared: a referendum jolt with the potential to fracture not just the union but reshape the postwar order in the west. Brexit tugs at the bonds holding the bloc together, and the collective standing and clout of its members in the world. The EU is at bay. Once Britain leaves, the EU loses its biggest military spender, a UN Security Council seat, its second-biggest economy and one of its most vocal champions of world trade and liberal economics. All that comes as the continent is buffeted by the aftermath of multiple economic and political shocks at home and abroad.”
Council on Foreign Relations’s Robert Kahn : “The fallout from the Brexit vote in the United States–tighter financial conditions caused by weaker stock markets and reduced risk taking, uncertainty about the future of Europe and global trade, as well as a weaker outlook for growth, strengthens the case for the Fed to put off rate hikes (if they needed any reason beforehand). Many issues that have come to the fore in our election campaign, including anxiety about the economic future of the country and globalization, will get a new look today. Together, there are many reasons to believe the economic consequences for the United States could be significant.”
New York Times’s Roger Cohen: “Warnings about the dire consequences of a British exit from President Barack Obama, Britain’s political leaders, major corporations based in Britain and the International Monetary Fund proved useless. If anything, they goaded a mood of defiant anger against those very elites.This resentment has its roots in many things but may be summed up as a revolt against global capitalism. To heck with the experts and political correctness was the predominant mood in the end. A majority of Britons had no time for the politicians that brought the world a disastrous war in Iraq, the 2008 financial meltdown, European austerity, stagnant working-class wages, high immigration and tax havens for the super-rich.”
Brookings Institution’s Richard Reeves: “Identity politics has tended in recent years to be of the progressive kind, advancing the cause of ethnic minorities, lesbians and gays, and so on. In both the U.K. and the U.S. a strongly reactionary form of identity politics is gaining strength, in part as a reaction to the cosmopolitan, liberal, and multicultural forms that have been dominant. This is identity politics of a negative kind, defined not by what you are for but what you are against. A narrow majority of my fellow Brits just decided that at the very least, being British means not being European.”
New York Times: “Despite intense support among his followers for his proposals for a Mexican border wall and a ban on Muslim immigration,Donald J. Trump will face trouble with independent voters on immigration in the November election, according to a survey published on Thursday by the Public Religion Research Institute and the Brookings Institution, nonpartisan research organizations.”
Of independent voters, “58 percent of respondents said they opposed a border wall… 78 percent of independents — and the same percentage of Americans over all — said those [11 million illegal] immigrants should be allowed to become American citizens or legal residents.”
Robert P. Jones, chief executive of the Public Religion Research Institute, said Trump’s proposals are “a winning strategy for the Republican primary but are not connected to where the country is as a whole. If Trump continues to double and triple down on that message, he may run into a wall with independent voters.”